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NFLPS: Underdog Eagles visit Cincinnati Friday
2010-08-21
The NFL Week 2 Preseason action continues on Friday with just one game, that matching the Eagles and Bengals from Cincinnati. Having played in the Hall-of-Fame game two weeks ago, this is actually going to be Cincinnati’s third exhibition contest already, all three coming in their home state. For Friday’s contest, oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com list the Bengals as field goal favorites with an accompanying total of 37. Let’s take a look at some of the key handicapping factors that might affect this game.
Both Kevin Kolb and Michael Vick contributed to the Eagles’ 28-27 win over the Jaguars in their preseason opener. Kolb was 6-11 for 95 yards, while Vick went threw for 119 yards (11-17, INT) and ran for 50 yards and a TD on six carries. Third-string QB Mike Kafka pitched in as well, leading the Eagles to the deciding FG in the fourth quarter. The Eagles defense did not perform as well, particularly against the pass, allowing a pair of long TD passes in a 17-point second quarter for the Jaguars and a 55-yard score near the end of the third quarter.
The Bengals bounced back from their 16-7 loss to Dallas in the Hall of Fame Game to post a 33-24 win over the Broncos on Sunday. Carson Palmer played three series, connecting on 12 of 15 pass attempts for 105 yards while leading his team to seven points. Terrell Owens caught four passes for 23 yards, while Chad Ochocinco caught just one ball for four yards. Rookie Jordan Shipley from Texas recorded five receptions for 50 yards.
With a pair of starting-caliber QBs in Kolb and Vick, there is not much dropoff at that key position when the Eagles go to their second stringers. Expect their offense to have an edge over the Bengal defense in the second half.
StatFox considers this the third week of the preseason officially, and as such, one of the better preseason systems will be in play for this and several of Saturday’s games. Take a look:
• Play On - Road underdogs or pick (PHILADELPHIA) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in the third week of the preseason. (41-18 over the last 10 seasons.) (69.5%, +21.2 units. Rating = 2*).
However, one of the things you’ll want to consider closely is that Philadelphia has not taken the preseason all that seriously under Andy Reid. These trends illustrate that:
• Reid is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of PHILADELPHIA. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 17.9, OPPONENT 21.1 - (Rating = 1*)
• Reid is 13-24 ATS (-13.4 Units) in non-conference games as the coach of PHILADELPHIA. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 17.6, OPPONENT 20.6 - (Rating = 1*)
Kickoff for Friday’s tilt is scheduled for 8:00 PM ET, and the game can be seen live in local markets or on delay on NFL Network later at night.
NFL: NY JETS vs. CINCINNATI (4:30 PM ET, NBC)
2010-01-09
The first of four wildcard games is one of three rematches from the Week 17 schedule, only the Jets and Bengals will switch venues from New York to Cincinnati. The Jets pummeled a listless Bengals’ team 37-0 on Sunday night and HC Marvin Lewis only rested his starters after the outcome was already decided. Bettors at Sportsbook.com seem to be looking for a repeat performance of that game, as 75% of them are calling for an upset by backing the Jets on the Money Line at +115. The pointspread is Cincy -2.5.
The Jets held Cincy to just 72 yards of offense last week, and finished #1 in the NFL in total defense. They are making their first playoff appearance in three seasons. Cincinnati (-3) last played in the postseason after the ’05 season and was beaten at home by Pittsburgh. Most of the top trends for this game indicate potential problems for the Bengals, as they are 0-8 ATS vs. good defenses yielding <17 PPG over the L3 seasons, and 0-7 ATS as a favorite in ’09.
A week following a somewhat clouded victory over previously undefeated Indianapolis, New York secured the No. 5 playoff seed by blowing out Cincinnati, 37-0, in what was likely the finale at Giants Stadium.
The Jets are built to go deep in the playoffs in their third trip in six years. Led by cornerback Darrelle Revis and linebacker David Harris, they ranked atop the NFL in total defense, yielding roughly 250 yards per game, and Thomas Jones spearheads the league’s best rushing offense at 170 yards per game.
With rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez (13 touchdowns, 20 interceptions) capable of imploding at any time, head coach Rex Ryan and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer will serve the hosts a heavy dose of Jones and rookie Shonn Greene. If they run the ball upwards of 30 times, the Jets won’t be an easy out.
The Bengals, making just their second postseason appearance in 19 years, may not stick around long if they don’t get back to the level they were playing prior to Week 11 when they laid an egg in Oakland. They’ve dropped four in a row on the road, and late-season home victories over Cleveland, Detroit and Kansas City left a lot to be desired.
Of great concern to head coach Marvin Lewis and offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski is the passing game, which has been on a downward spiral since the beginning of November. Quarterback Carson Palmer went 17 games without throwing for 300 yards before hitting for 314 in a Week 15 loss in San Diego, and his No. 1 receiver, Chad Ochocinco, who just completed a seventh 1,000-yard season, has to contend with Revis. Palmer played horribly in the regular-season finale and was 1 of 11 with an interception.
If Ochocinco fails to rise to the occasion, the Bengals better hope Cedric Benson (1,251 yards, six touchdowns on 301 carries) does or else they’ll be in trouble. The Bears’ castoff enjoyed six 100-yard games, a franchise single-season record, but he hasn’t scored in two months.
New York holds a commanding 15-7 lead in the all-time series and has won seven of the last eight meetings.
PREDICTION: Expect a defensive struggle to come down to which backfield—Jones and Greene or Benson and Larry Johnson—wins the battle on the ground. That should be the former, and as long as Sanchez doesn’t go playing Santa Claus the Jets could make their fans happy in January for a change. N.Y. JETS 17, CINCINNATI 13
NFL: SAN DIEGO at PITTSBURGH (4:30 PM ET, CBS)
2009-01-09
Pittsburgh, and QB Ben Roethlisberger, was lucky to get a bye. With him back, the Steelers host upstart San Diego as a 6-point favorite in the final divisional playoff. These teams played a competitive 11-10 affair in November, a game known for its controversial finish that affected millions of bettors when a last second Pittsburgh return TD by Troy Polamalu was waved off by officials. In any case, Pittsburgh has played well vs. San Diego, 8-3 SU & ATS in the L11 meetings. However, HC Norv Turner’s teams are 6-0 ATS in the playoffs after the upset of Indy, and with San Diego, his record is 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in revenge spots. The Chargers boast the NFL’s top passing game at 7.9 yards per attempt. Pittsburgh is #1 defensively in that stat, 4.7 PYA allowed.
Somewhere along the way to the Super Bowl, three-time NFL Most Valuable Player Peyton Manning seems to lose his shield of invincibility against San Diego. For the second straight year, the Colts’ season ended against the Chargers, after they eked out a 23-17 overtime victory at Qualcomm Stadium in the Wild-Card round last Saturday. Backup running back Darren Sproles, subbing for the injured LaDainian Tomlinson, totaled 328 yards, including 105 on the ground, and the game-winning 22-yard touchdown run in overtime.
The Chargers, who needed to win four straight games just to make the postseason, snapped the Colts’ nine-game run and advanced to the AFC Divisional round for the third straight year. Second-seed Pittsburgh awaits and already owns an 11-10 win over the Chargers at Heinz Field in Week 11. Though the Steelers failed to score a touchdown—their 11 points came on three field goals and a safety—they did pile up 410 total yards, including 115 on the ground from Willie Parker and 124 more through the air on 11 catches by wide receiver Hines Ward.
The Chargers limited Manning to just one touchdown pass, but he did complete three throws of at least 20 yards and added 30 more on a pass interference against Quentin Jammer. The secondary, a weak link for San Diego, allowed 37 plays of at least that length during the regular season and ranked 31st against the pass (247.4 yards per game). Ben Roethlisberger completed 31 of 41 throws for 308 yards the first time around, but keeping in line with his crash test dummy treatment for most of the year (46 sacks), the Chargers dropped him four times.
Pittsburgh didn’t see much of Sproles—he had just one carry and one kick return—but the special teams dynamo can expect another major dose of carries after 22 against Indianapolis. Philip Rivers has enjoyed a career season without a top-notch running game, but lacking that dimension in the first trip to Pittsburgh, he was held without a touchdown and threw two picks. He needs the 5-6, 181-pound Sproles to slither through a Steelers run defense that’s allowed just 80.2 yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry.
PREDICTION: The Chargers are winless in Pittsburgh during the regular season (0-13) but perfect in the playoffs (2-0). They need a perfect combination of ball control and defense to have any chance of upsetting the Steelers. Limiting Manning to one touchdown looks great on paper, but he still topped 300 yards and moved the ball with no help from the ground game. PITTSBURGH 30, SAN DIEGO 17
NFL: Late Afternoon Kickoffs (4:05 PM ET, FOX & CBS)
2008-11-10
There are only three NFL late afternoon kickoffs, so be sure to spend plenty of time reviewing the key game information for these contests available for you from Sportsbook.com on the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages. The key game matches Indianapolis and Pittsburgh. Here’s a quick look at that game, plus the other two contests showcasing AFC West teams.
(225) CAROLINA at (226) OAKLAND
Carolina took last week off to enjoy the fruits of its 6-2 start. The Raiders only seemingly took vacation on Sunday, falling at home to Atlanta, 24-0. Oakland was outgained by an incredible 453-77 margin in that game, easily their most pathetic effort of the season. Riding that “momentum”, the Silver & Black host their second straight NFC South foe. Not surprisingly, the Panthers are a TD-favorite. The Raiders offensive numbers have reached horribly low depths, as they are now averaging just 13.4 PPG and 265.3 YPG. That is a key factor, with Carolina coming in with a 27-8 ATS mark all-time against teams scoring 17 PPG or less. Oakland is 1-9 ATS in its L10 non-conference games, and 11-24 ATS in its L35 opportunities as a home underdog.
(227) KANSAS CITY at (228) SAN DIEGO
Only in the AFC West Division could a 3-5 team still be considered a serious playoff contender, but that is exactly how San Diego is being viewed as we head into the season’s second half. How else can it be explained that the Chargers are a 14-point favorite this weekend vs. Kansas City? After taking last week off, San Diego finds itself only one-game back in the division standings, with Denver doing all it can not to pull away. The Chargers have been a good team coming out of the bye week, going 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in the L8. They are also on a run of 11-3 ATS in divisional play and 6-0 ATS over the L2 seasons vs. teams yielding 24 PPG or worse. HC Herm Edwards team is 6-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog. In the h2h series, the dog is 5-11 SU but 10-6 ATS.
(229) INDIANAPOLIS at (230) PITTSBURGH
Indianapolis continues its toughest stretch of the 2008 schedule with a trip to Pittsburgh. Strangely, with as good as each of these teams has been over the past decade, this will be Indy’s first trip to the Steel City since ‘02. Furthermore, it’s just the third head-to-head meeting overall since, with the prior two both coming in ‘05, once in the regular season and then the playoff upset by the Steelers. Even more strange is the fact that the Colts are fighting for their playoff lives. In their favor in this matchup is a trend which finds them 8-0 ATS in their L8 games vs. good rushing defense yielding 3 YPR or less. They are also 19-6 SU & 15-9 ATS in the month of November under Tony Dungy. The Steelers are just 2-8 ATS in their L10 November games.
NFL: Need to Know Preseason Saturday Tips
2008-08-08
Dallas and San Diego meet in an NFL Network telecast Saturday night, and neither would mind meeting on a neutral field again in early February in Florida, for a much larger prize. The Chargers are three-point home favorites with total at 35.5 and are searching for a center, with Nick Hardwick possibly until October. Antonio Gates is going through training drills, however appears weeks away from practicing with the team. San Diego is 1-6 ATS in opening preseason games the last seven seasons.
Dallas had to rebuild coaching staff when Tony Sparano left for Miami, taking three other assistances with him. As usual, the Cowboys made off-season news signing Adam (the performer formerly known as Pacman) Jones and made a somewhat controversial selection in the draft, in taking running back Felix Jones. Beyond this, all the major components are in place for another Super Bowl run, with the ‘Boys being 5-18 ATS the first two weeks of the preseason.
Denver looks to rebound after unsatisfying 7-9 season (5-11 ATS) and travels to Houston who has visions of playoff possibilities swimming in their heads after first .500 campaign. The Broncos want back in the playoffs, meaning Jay Cutler has to be more consistent. Biggest news in camp is the booming kicks of Matt Prater will be on the hot seat all season replacing the Broncos' all-time leading scorer, Jason Elam. Prater has wowed coaches, who needed good news, as rookie running back Ryan Torian appeared to be perfect fit for Denver run scheme, broke a bone in his left elbow and is out three months. Sportsbook.com has Denver catching three points and they are 5-1 ATS as road dogs.
One of Houston’s biggest off-season moves was keeping linebacker coach Johnny Holland. When Mike Sherman left for Texas A&M job, most figured Holland would join him, however Holland stayed as he has assembled a solid group of mid-line defenders, led by DeMeco Ryans. For the Texans, it’s all about staying healthy, keeping Andre Johnson and Ahman Green on the field. Coach Gary Kubiak does have depth at running back and a good group of starting players, but like most teams that are building, the reserves are marginal. The Texas are 1-2-1 ATS as home favorites the last four seasons and are 6-2 Over the previous two years.
Other notable information has Washington and Indianapolis playing a second game already. The Redskins were sharp in initial outing under new coach Jim Zorn; with rookie quarterback Colt Brennan the star. Washington is 1-9 ATS at home games off one or more straight Overs and is down to 3.5-point favorite against Buffalo. The Colts saw August record fall to 3-11 ATS in last 14 outings, yet have proven to play with greater urgency after losing by 10 or more points with 10-1 ATS mark in next contest. Carolina will play host to Indy and is 4.5-point pick.
Betting action on Jacksonville has seen them fall from six-point favorites to 3.5, despite being 14-6 ATS the last five years. A possible explanation is the new coach theory in the preseason. New coaches have generally performed well trying to build new programs and Atlanta has Mike Smith at the helm making debut. New head masters are 2-0 SU and ATS to start 2008.
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis
2007-11-30
Each of the last two meetings between the Jaguars and Colts in Indianapolis has resulted in 7-point wins for the hosts. Fittingly, Indy is a 7-point favorite for this week’s pivotal matchup. Both teams have favorable angles backing them. The Colts have home-field advantage, and they have played well at the RCA Dome the L2 seasons, going 14-1 SU & 11-4 ATS. The Jaguars are hot though, having won their L3 games SU & ATS by 14.7 PPG. They are also 4-1 ATS in their L5 trips to Indy. HC Tony Dungy’s team is 1-2 ATS in divisional games this year and 3-6 ATS in its L9. The lone win was in Jacksonville in week 6, a dominant 29-7 decision. With the teams separated by just a game in the standings, an extra three days of rest for the banged-up Colts could be key.
The Jaguars may be the best-kept secret in the NFL, sitting at 8-3 SU (7-4 ATS) despite a troubling lack of proven star power and a list of injuries that would kill most teams. The defense is a major concern, surrendering over 350 yards of total offense per game, but the offense, led by the beneficial talents of RBs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, is proving to be a tougher unit that once believed.
The Colts are the best team with the biggest hurdles thus far in 2007, facing daunting injuries to several key players but continuing to win despite those concerns. QB Peyton Manning is making lemonade out of lemons each and every Sunday, but the work of RB Joseph Addai has served as the pillar of the Colts’ success on offense. These AFC South battles are always tough for the Colts, but their overall numbers (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) indicate they are up to the challenge.
Keys to the Game
Indianapolis will have extra time to prepare for Jacksonville who is breathing down there necks. Peyton Manning has been under more pressure, holding on to the ball just a fraction longer, lacking trust in his receivers. Having David Garrard for the entire game would be a big plus for Jacksonville after missing a large portion of the last meeting. The Jaguars have never been a favorite against Indy in 13 previous contests and will test Manning early to see if he has the confidence in receivers to throw on first down, with seven or eight in the box. Jacksonville is 7-3-1 ATS in recent meetings, including 4-1 at RCA Dome.
Trends
~ Jacksonville is 10-2-1 ATS as a division underdog on the road.
~ Indianapolis is 3-12 ATS vs. poor passing defenses allowing 7.0 or more passing yards per attempt after eight games.